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Kieran Burt: Voters deserve representation, not defecting MPs

By Centre Write, Politics

The Parliamentary system has needed reform for some time. The House of Lords is still very undemocratic and the controversy around MPs’ second jobs brings up the influence of unfair lobbying in our lawmaking. However, one of the areas that is in need of desperate reform are by-elections and defecting MPs. And this has only been highlighted by the defection of the Bury South MP Christian Wakeford. This is an area that has been neglected for some time, and needs to be addressed in order to keep our democracy healthy.

Under the current law, MPs are not forced to hold a by-election should they choose to defect. They can defect at any moment and for any reason, without consulting their constituents. The ability for MPs to abandon their elected mandate undermines their ability for them to accurately represent what voters want, and thus fails the idea of a representative democracy.  

This failure of representation effectively mutes voters until the next election. Many people vote along party lines, with the leader of the party, its history and manifesto commanding the most influence over people’s vote. Candidates don’t have nearly the same amount of influence; many times people won’t even know who is standing in their area until it is in front of them on their ballot. An individual defection without consent therefore represents the MP’s breaking the commitments they were elected upon. Whilst MP’s should be free to speak their mind, their loyalty should be first and foremost with the party that got them elected, as that is the party that holds the highest amount of public support in that area. 

The reform would be a simple one. MPs who voluntarily defect to a new political party should be forced to hold an immediate by-election. In fact, similar reform has already been suggested, both in 2011 and in 2020. In the latter case, Wakeford co-sponsored the measure. He should stand by his principles and call a by-election. 

Failing to call a by-election after defection sidelines constituents. They voted in 2019 to be represented by a Conservative and yet are now represented by their main opposition. This dramatic shift in views is unlikely to represent the same shift in views for the voters, and yet they are forced to go along with it.

Defecting to the opposite party might also cause concern for those already in it as well. In the case of Christian Wakeford, Momentum and Young Labour have voiced their discomfort about Christian Wakeford being in the party due to his voting record. This is unsurprising, as often the Conservatives and Labour push for policies that are diametrically opposed. 

Holding a by-election would allow for the local Labour party to scrutinise Wakeford’s commitment to their values, and if they found that this commitment wasn’t strong enough they would be able to select another candidate who better fits. It is likely that Wakeford would be deselected, as he doesn’t meet the current criteria to stand as a candidate for the Labour party. However, as the rules currently stand, the Labour party are stuck with a Conservative in disguise. 

Voters have previously punished MPs who defect without asking for their consent. Take Anna Soubry. Voted in as a Conservative MP for Broxtowe in 2010, she won the successive elections there in 2015 and 2017, and held several ministerial positions. But that all changed in 2019, when she defected to Change UK. She stood for reelection in 2019, losing to the Conservative candidate Darren Henry. This fate was repeated for all of the MPs that defected in 2019, with not one being reelected. They attempted to bank on the personal being stronger than the party, and were quickly reminded that this is not the case. 

What happened in 2019 also points to another reason why by-elections should be held after defections. As there is no danger to defecting, many MPs have done it multiple times in a short timeframe. Chucka Umunna defected from Labour to Change UK, and then again to the Liberal Democrats, before failing to be reelected. Luciana Berger, defected to Change UK, then to being an independent MP, and then went to the Liberal Democrats, where she failed to win her seat. 

This type of back and forth movement is highly unnecessary. It shows a lack of respect for the mandate the MPs were elected upon, and thus the voters themselves. MPs are more concerned with playing a type of Parliamentary ping pong than fully representing the views that they were elected on. 

There are two exceptions to this however. In 2014, both Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless, held by-elections after they defected to UKIP. They did not take their constituents for granted, and they were rewarded by being reelected. 

If MPs are confident that the voters will support their decision to defect, then they should put that to the ballot box. It has been made clear however, that they cannot be trusted, and that reform is needed. Defections have been common throughout politics, but the mechanisms to ensure voters are not being ignored in the process have been left out.

Kieran is currently undertaking work experience at Bright Blue. Views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue. [Image: Gov.uk]

Good Things Foundation: How much does it pay to be “tech savvy”? The economic benefits of digital skills in our modern world

By Centre Write, Politics

So here we are, 2022.

As the year begins, we find ourselves adhering to the UK government’s Omicron strategy. We’ve reduced our social contact once again, increased our home working, mask wearing, and testing. Consequently, many of us have ramped up our digital usage. We’re clocking hours of screen time as our lives go back online.

Yet for around 10 million adults in the UK, being able to turn on a digital device or connect to the internet remains a difficult task. These people cannot get online independently, making it near-enough impossible for them to engage in work-related activities, access public services, and connect to family and friends. These digital skills are essential. And they’re not just essential for the individual, but for the UK economy as well.

In 2018, Good Things Foundation wrote about the economic impact of digital inclusion in the UK. Our report summarised the cumulative benefits of supporting individuals to learn basic digital skills by 2028. The results were startling.

Take earnings benefits: learning basic digital skills is expected to increase individual incomes, as people become more productive and are able to progress into roles that are more skill intensive. As we know, higher earnings impact National Insurance Contributions and income tax receipts that the government gains, all in all resulting – at the time of writing – in an estimated earnings benefit of £571m to the economy.

The report illustrated an equally impressive contribution by means of individuals entering employment. Digital upskilling can increase the likelihood of unemployed people, or those who are economically inactive, to enter the workforce – adding an estimated £313m to the UK economy, according to our 2018 findings.

Beyond work, there are multiple other benefits of digital upskilling for the economy. NHS savings, transaction benefits like online shopping, and additional expenditure on recreational and cultural activities to name a few. Investment is required, but the boost in tax receipts and NHS savings alone exceeds the amount of funding necessary.

However, the world – and the numbers – have changed since 2018. On the one hand, we have witnessed Brexit’s aftermath and experienced global supply chain crises. On the other, unjust racial and gender inequalities have been exposed and our climate action accelerated. Even now, the UK’s recent inflation jump will result in chaotic income disparities for people and families across the nation. All in all, we have experienced dramatic change worldwide.

On a macro- and micro-level we know it pays to be tech savvy. Digital skills can support people to save money, improve their earning power, and contribute millions to the economy. But just how much, we do not know. As we brace ourselves for a third pandemic year and society’s biggest digital transformation continues, now is the time to find out.

We need a refreshed economic case for digital upskilling, one that takes into account the political, social, economic, and environmental context of our time. With this information, we can make robust and reliable calculations for longer term investment and make strides towards economic prosperity in our modern world.

Hannah is currently Advocacy Manager at the Good Things Foundation. Views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue. [Image: pexels]

Ioana Diac: Cleaning up ‘sleaze’ in Westminster – what should be done about MP’s second jobs?

By Centre Write, Politics

MPs’ second jobs have come under recent scrutiny after Conservative MP Owen Paterson was found guilty of breaching Parliamentary lobbying rules last month. Stories of the eye-wateringly high salaries some MPs earn through outside employment have dominated newspaper headlines since, raising doubts over MPs’ abilities to put their constituents’ needs above corporate interests. With trust in UK politicians plummeting to a historic low after the scandal, the Conservatives need to take a clear stance on second jobs, not only to avoid sleaze allegations from miring the party again but, crucially, to restore public faith in Parliament.

The debate on whether MPs should engage in work outside of their Parliamentary responsibilities is a long-running one. MPs already receive an annual salary of nearly £82,000, which is significantly above the average national income of £30,000 a year. On top of this, MPs can claim expenses for accommodation, staff, and travel between Parliament and their constituency. With a salary that puts them in the UK’s top 5% of earners, why would MPs want to have a second job?

Admittedly, there is a strong case for allowing some types of second jobs. For instance, those in public service such as doctors and nurses need to continue practicing if they want to keep their licence. As such, some MPs do a few hospital shifts a month or run a GP surgery once a week to enable them to easily re-enter the profession full-time once they leave politics. This is especially important for MPs in marginal seats whose job security is particularly tenuous and who depend on these second jobs as something to fall back on. Few oppose these kinds of second jobs, and Parliament is ultimately enhanced by the front-line experience of such MPs.

The number of MPs with such public sector jobs is extremely small however; just six out of 650 MPs have declared work as a doctor or nurse in the latest register of interests. The vast majority of MPs with second jobs work as consultants or advisors for private businesses. These MPs earn high salaries in exchange for political contacts and insider knowledge of Parliamentary processes that can increase businesses’ chances to strike lucrative deals. For instance, Owen Paterson was found to have repeatedly used his position as an MP to approach ministers and secure meetings otherwise unavailable without his support on behalf of companies paying him as a consultant. This demonstrates the unfair advantages that private companies can enjoy when they employ MPs as advisers. Such consultancy jobs are at best unnecessary given MPs’ considerable salaries, but they enable outright lobbying at worst, putting the very nature of Britain’s democracy under question.

The current rules allow MPs to act as consultants and advisers to businesses as long as they declare it in the register of financial interests and do not lobby the government on behalf of their employers. This may not remain the case for long. After Labour’s own call to curb second jobs, Boris Johnson set out plans to ban MPs from working as paid parliamentary strategists, advisers, or political consultants. He further proposed that any outside role should be “within reasonable limits” to ensure MPs still fully carry out their duties. 

There is doubt over the efficacy of these proposals, however. The Government has not yet agreed on what a ‘reasonable limit’ is, with cabinet minister Anne-Marie Trevelyan MP confusingly suggesting the restriction could mean a cap of either 20, 10 to 15, or just eight hours a week. Furthermore, the question of who fits the definition of a ‘parliamentary strategist, adviser, or political consultant’ is still ill-defined and could create a number of edge cases, such as whether paid chairs of trade associations would fall under this category. Most MPs also describe their work in general terms and avoid the mention of politics when detailing the kind of advice they offer as consultants. As a result, these proposals might not have even covered Owen Paterson himself, as the former MP was registered as a consultant, not a ‘political’ one. He also worked less than five hours a week in this job so the proposed ‘reasonable’ time limits would not have affected him. 

Analysis of what is known of the proposed changes so far suggests that as few as two out of 48 MPs with consultancy jobs would fit under these narrow rules. Instead of worrying about semantics, the government should clearly ban MPs from holding any external jobs in the private sector. After all, public opinion is largely in favour of this, as a poll for the Observer found that 45% of people supported a ban on MP’s extra work compared to 25% who opposed it. 

MPs ultimately have a public duty to represent and serve the constituents who elected them, not the interests of private companies bankrolling them. A clear ban on MPs having second jobs in the private sector could not only restore much needed public trust in politicians, but also put an end to brazen conflicts of interest. It is about time the rules stamped this out.

Ioana is currently Research Assistant at Bright Blue. Views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue. [Image: pexels]

Max Anderson: Get off my front page you meddling SpAds

By Centre Write, Politics

Special advisers or ‘SpAds’ are everyone’s new favourite political animal. In the last 20 years, they have entertained us by adding political drama, such as with Dominic Cummings’ trip to Durham during a turbulent 2020, or by inspiring political satire in the form of Malcolm Tucker in The Thick of It.

SpAds have become open to the accusation that they spend too much time in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons. It is time to take action, hold SpAds properly to account, and send them back to the shadows. 

Before the introduction of SpAds, ministers relied solely on the civil service for advice. Although the civil service provides stability and a source of experienced advice as cabinets change over time, their code of conduct prevents them from offering any political advice. 

This restriction can prevent a minister accessing the support they need. If a minister is a radical reformer, the civil service might not provide the political advice they want, but are more likely to offer the same traditional suggestions ingrained in their culture. However, a SpAd can not only provide this advice, but also find and bring in diverse and unique ideas that can help install new political policy, which is an essential function. 

Ministers are not necessarily media savvy, but in the modern age of 24-hour news, they have to be. The civil service are again restricted with what they can do to support, promote, and help a minister. SpAds are not, and can therefore provide the necessary protection and advice their minister needs. 

Despite this, the civil service can enjoy the company of SpAds. Ministers have demanding schedules, so government departments can at times feel like a ship without a captain. However, SpAds can talk to their minister, understand where they want, and provide coordination and support required. 

Moreover, SpAds can also act as a mediator between a minister and the civil service. They have the time to listen to the civil service’s suggestions, and because a minister unequivocally trusts them, they are more likely to convince their minister to see reason and work with the civil service, not against it. 

Within the Westminster bubble, loyalty can be fleeting. It is important for a minister to have a loyal adviser in their corner who can provide a non-judgemental sounding board and can act as a natural extension of the minister in such an incomparably demanding role. 

This bond is so strong that if anyone tries to break it, ministers can be willing to sacrifice themselves in order to keep their SpAd. This act of loyalty was demonstrated by Savid Javid last year who resigned when he was told to fire his advisers. 

However, beyond this, SpAds have also been accused of trying to ‘bury bad news’ on 9/11, bullying, using official twitter accounts to attack the opposition, and leaking private documents. Despite their code of conduct stating that SpAds “must not take public part in political controversy”, too often they end up on the front pages with a fresh scandal. 

Therefore, the question is no longer should we keep SpAds, but how to keep them off the front pages. 

Currently, the only person who can hold a SpAd to account and fire them is the minister who hired them, but ministers can avoid firing their SpAds to avoid public embarassement.

We all saw this play out with Dominic Cummings. Instead of removing a man who single-handedly forced the Conservatives to plummet in the polls, Boris Johnson preferred for his adviser to speak in the Downing Street rose garden to defend himself. The pair only divorced when their relationship completely broke down

Canada has had SpAds for nearly 60 years, with scandals that can make British ones look tame by comparison, such as those involving Bruce Carson, and the Sponsorship Scandal.

Canada took action by implementing an independent ombudsman. Too often SpAds refuse to appear in front of parliamentary committees, as demonstrated in 2019 by Dominic Cummings. The Canadian ombudsman has the power to force SpAds to appear. With this power, SpAds can’t hide and can be properly scrutinised.

Canadian Ombudsmen are also conducted in private. This entices SpAds to volunteer to testify as they no longer have to face the intensive lens of the public spotlight. New Zealand, a country with a similar Ombudsman’s system has demonstrated the benefits of this. After Nicky Hager’s book accused SpAds of blocking freedom of information (FOI) requests, SpAds and officials willingly came forward to testify without the ombudsman even using his coercive powers. 

When reports are published the conclusions are clear cut. SpAds cannot hide behind their minister and have no choice but to part with their SpAd. When Canadian SpAd Sebastien Togneri was found guilty of blocking FOI requests, Canada’s sitting PM Stephen Harper forced him out immediately.

SpAds have become an essential part of 21st century politics. The support they provide is vital for the ministers they serve, but reform is also necessary to introduce greater accountability, and for which we can look to the examples of Canada and New Zealand for inspiration.

Max is Communications Officer at Bright Blue. Views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue. [Image: Gov.uk]

Henry Yates: Without urgent reform, the next big lobbying scandal won’t be far away

By Centre Write, Politics

In February 2010 David Cameron predicted that lobbying was “the next big scandal waiting to happen”. In 2014, Cameron’s Government passed the Transparency of Lobbying, Non-Party Campaigning and Trade Union Administration Act, which established a register of consultant lobbyists and required that all their activity be regularly reported.

Lobbying is not necessarily harmful. The fact that businesses, professional associations, and advocacy groups are free to advocate their viewpoints directly to politicians allows for a broader set of opinions to be considered and can therefore lead to more effective policy making. However, in order to have a broader range of viewpoints considered fairly, the access that lobbyists have to politicians must be equal. In addition, this access must be transparent so that politicians can be held accountable for listening to, or ignoring, the perspectives presented to them. Lobbying, therefore, can improve governance provided that it occurs within suitable regulatory safeguards.

Events during the Covid-19 pandemic, however, have demonstrated these safeguards to be insufficient. Within a context of a record peacetime deficit of £303 billion, the UK has seen a series of controversies related to government lobbying. Most prominent among these was David Cameron’s lobbying of former colleagues on behalf of Greensill Capital, the involvement of cabinet ministers in contracts for the procurement of personal protective equipment, and the Prime Minister’s communications with Sir James Dyson.

These cases demonstrate that access to government by lobbyists is at present neither equal nor transparent. A relatively small group of private interests have enjoyed far greater access than others and have done so with low levels of transparency. This situation raises the question of whether private interests had inappropriate influence over government policy.

At a minimum, these episodes have undoubtedly degraded the credibility of the Government and its response to the pandemic. Polling in April of this year revealed that forty percent of voters view the current government as untrustworthy. As yet, this perception does not appear to have dampened the Conservatives dominant position in the polls. However, once the UK’s vaccination programme, and the popularity that came with it, comes to an end there is a serious risk that the Government will be left with a damaging reputation for corruption. In order to maintain public trust, therefore, the government should seek to reform the present system of lobbying registration and reporting.

At present, only consultant lobbyists are required to register whereas in-house teams working directly for companies, advocacy groups, or representative bodies are specifically exempt. Furthermore, lobbying is only considered as such if it attempts to influence ministers, permanent secretaries or a small group of eight senior public figures. Because of these exemptions the Association of Professional Political Consultants estimated during the passage of the 2014 Act that less than one percent of lobbying activity would be covered by the statutory register. 

These limitations stand in contrast to regulations overseas. Irish legislation defines a broad set of Designated Public Officials in local and national government and requires that both in-house and consultant lobbyists register their communications with them. Canada similarly registers both in-house and consultant teams operating at the federal level. Likewise, the US Lobbying Disclosure Act requires registration from in-house lobbyists whose budget exceeds a set level and covers the lobbying of all members of Congress and almost all employees of the federal government.

In addition to its limited scope, the UK lobbying register also suffers from a lack of detail. Consultant lobbyists are required only to report their clients on a quarterly basis. By contrast Irish lobbyists are required to specify which officials, on what subject, by which method of communication and on behalf of which client they are lobbying. Canadian lobbyists are required to submit reports on any “oral and arranged communications” on a monthly basis.

The Greensill affair also clearly demonstrates the limitations of the current restrictions on post-governmental employment. David Cameron was able to lobby his former colleagues from his position at Greensill Capital due to the limits of the two year ban on ministerial lobbying – a fact which led the Committee for Standards in Public Life to recommend an extension of this ban to a maximum of five years, dependent on the seniority of the minister in question.

However, simply extending the ban on post ministerial lobbying will not be sufficient to fix the current issues in post ministerial appointments. The Advisory Committee on Business Appointments has no enforcement powers and thus, by the admission of its own secretariat, “depends on voluntary cooperation from applicants”. The inadequacy of this arrangement is demonstrated by George Osborne’s accepting the editorship of the London Evening Standard in 2017 without first consulting ACOBA and, more recently, by Bill Crowther’s failure to report to ACOBA that he was hired as an adviser to Greensill Capital whilst simultaneously leading the UK’s Crown Commercial Service.

Improvement of the UK’s lobbying regulations must therefore be twofold. The system of registration and reporting must be made more transparent. This can be achieved by extending reporting requirements to in-house lobbyists, expanding the list of public officials to which lobbying must be declared, and requiring that lobbyists declare which public officials they are lobbying and on which subject.

Simultaneously the ease with which ministers and civil servants are able to lobby their former colleagues should be reduced by allowing ACOBA to ban lobbying activities for a maximum of five years after government employment. In addition, ACOBA should be given enforcement powers to improve the currently insufficient levels of compliance.

The pandemic and its associated scandals have demonstrated that reform of the UK’s lobbying legislation is vital. Statistics from ACOBA and research into lobbying reveals that it is becoming more so. The number of former ministers and civil servants applying to ACOBA to approve post-government employment rose 40% between the years 2018-19 and 2019-20, research from Professor Anne Rasmussen has shown that levels of lobbying within Europe and North America are rising and reports from the Bureau of Investigative Journalism claim that the UK’s lobbying industry is “thriving”.

Within this context, the UK must update its lobbying transparency legislation to a standard in line with our international partners as a matter of priority. Failing to do so would ensure that lobbying, just as in 2010, will have the potential to become the “next big scandal”.

Henry is currently undertaking work experience at Bright Blue. Views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue. [Image: Number 10]

Wahid Azaoui: Why we should revive the Big Society

By Centre Write, Politics

Often misunderstood and unfairly demonised by its critics, the Big Society works as a bold conservative political idea. It was first introduced by former Prime Minister David Cameron in his Hugo Young lecture of 2009 in the run-up to the 2010 general elections. Though it was first presented to me during my time in secondary school, it has undoubtedly shaped my perception of politics and society ever since. The main ambitions of this policy were not unusual as such: decentralisation, innovation, prosperity and community-building. The means, however, were different and promising. The idea revolved around a simple mechanism, specifically investing in and encouraging social entrepreneurs, start-ups and community activists to unleash a mighty wave of social energy which would in turn benefit everyone – regardless of race, class or gender. Yet the narratives on Mr Cameron’s premiership instead shifted towards arguments over austerity and Brexit, as the sole legacy of a government which believed in individual and collective empowerment. Likewise, the rise of populist rhetoric has shifted public opinion towards issues like immigration, thus ignoring the possible prospects and achievements of the Big Society.

Resources exist in society, some created by government, but most are produced by the people, and often overlooked and underestimated. The purpose of the Big Society was to encourage civil society to take action, sometimes in lieu of public services but most often in addition to them. In the long-term, that would mean combining institutions such as charities, trusts and even private companies in order to offer opportunities at a local level, therefore reducing dependence on government. In the short and medium terms, the Government would support those who need it the most, particularly in areas such as education, health and security. In other words, that would mean integrating a pro-market government with a widespread model of social solidarity based on hierarchy and voluntarism. The Big Society marked an impressive attempt to reframe, but not withdraw, the role of government and to unleash entrepreneurial spirit – thus stimulating economic and social growth whilst reducing inequalities. 

The Covid-19 crisis has offered us an incredible insight into the significance of the role of civil society in building shared purposes and inspirations. The British people did not become ‘social’ overnight but the pandemic has shown us that coming together for the common good is neither a political utopia nor a prelude to small government. Restaurants that have become incapable of serving customers have helped feed front-line workers. Families have secured funding and groceries to support food banks and other charities. Not forgetting, of course, the incredible solidarity impetus driven by Captain Sir Tom Moore and which has been made possible by the help of supporters up and down the country. The Big Society focuses on human beings as bundles of capability instead of economic atoms. The Covid-19 crisis has proved that more than ever, putting human nature at the core of society can help overcome all sorts of political challenges, from cutting crime to reducing unemployment. 

There is a very specific reason why the Big Society must come back to the core of governmental incentives: the Conservative Party has always proved its capacity to adapt to its epoch. 21st century Britain requires that the Conservatives remain the party of social reform. Meritocracy, personal liberalism and social pluralism all characterise the current government. One example of that is the capacity of the party to embrace the amazing diversity that builds up the United Kingdom. Rishi Sunak, son of Punjabi Hindu immigrants, galvanises our economy. Priti Patel, daughter of Indian immigrants, protects our streets. This capacity to offer everyone a chance and to support those who need it the most lies at the core of the Big Society ideals. The public sector has already failed to prevent the poorest parts of the country from becoming so, and there are many examples of the Big Society having been effective in poor areas. In Balsall Heath, Birmingham – which used to be one of the country’s most precarious areas – inspiring social organisations such as the Balsall Heath Forum have continuously acted towards socio-economic progress, working alongside a government providing support but also freedom and autonomy to the people who could make the greatest difference. Likewise, the Big Society Awards have for years encouraged and celebrated groups and organisations making things better for their communities and their people. 

Now is the time to provide a new social contract between the state and civil society. It would be naïve to believe that this transformation will happen overnight, hence why the Government must remain strong enough to plant the seeds of this project. To be an enabler instead of a provider per se. Such a massive shift in the culture of society would put power and responsibility in the hands of local people and social entrepreneurs who can really change communities. Prime Minister Johnson and Mr Sunak have throughout the pandemic been highlighting in various occasions what the British people can achieve together at a local level, whether when supporting vulnerable and elderly people in doing their groceries or in setting up telephone befriending services in Eastbourne. The Prime Minister and his Government shall now learn from the positive outcomes of the Covid-19 crisis and unlock Britain, by enabling the formation of a strong and prosperous community spirit. Build back better, in a Big Society.

Taylor is currently undertaking work experience at Bright Blue. Views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue. [Image: Chmee2]

Taylor Parnell: Is the age of the minor party over?

By Centre Write, Politics

Until 2010, Westminster had been dominated by both Labour and the Conservatives for decades, while minor parties had very little influence. Most people would strongly argue that they are the only two parties in Westminster who have a realistic chance of winning power. However, the last decade in UK politics has shown us unprecedented times such as the turmoil over Brexit, the confusion and chaos that comes with coalitions and the increase in nationalism around the union. All of these complications share one thing in common, they have been great for minor parties. 

Minor parties have and can affect the policies of both the Labour party and Conservative party. As evidenced by the predicament of Brexit. Support for a referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU was increasingly becoming popular as illustrated in the success UKIP was set to achieve, where polls had predicted they would gain around 13% of the vote in the upcoming 2015 general election. This was clear evidence to David Cameron and the Conservatives that if they wanted to win back some of these voters in future elections, they must offer a referendum. As a result, in the 2015 conservative manifesto, Cameron offered a ‘in or out referendum by the end of 2017’

Since 2010, we have seen a coalition and a confidence and supply agreement. When coalitions and informal agreements such as confidence and supply occur, the minor party has proven pivotal in keeping the government functional and been able to implement parts of their manifesto. During the Conservative – Lib Dem coalition, we saw the government cut taxes for millions of people  as well as increasing the state pension fund, something that some people argue, including Nick Clegg, would not have happened if the Conservatives won a majority.  

After the 2017 general election, when Theresa May failed to achieve an outright majority for the conservatives, the confidence and supply agreement she made with the DUP allowed her to govern effectively and fight off any challenges to her leadership. For example, in January 2019, Jeremy Corbyn tabled a vote of no confidence in May’s leadership. One she would not have been able to win without her agreement with the DUP. 

With nationalism on the rise in Scotland, smaller parties have a much better chance at winning some form of power and fulfilling their agendas further. In 2015, the SNP increased their seats in Westminster by 50, limiting the power of the Conservative and Labour party further by reducing their influence in Parliament. In addition, the SNP are set to win a record breaking majority in the upcoming Scottish parliament elections, something that is very difficult to do given the proportional electoral system, strengthening their proposal of independence further.

On the contrary, some would argue that even though minor parties have played a more significant role in the last decade, the extent of their power and influence is limited due to the national electoral system. First past the post means that the candidate with the most amount of votes, wins the seat. Therefore, if there are multiple candidates in a constituency, and the candidate with the most votes received 40%, they would win the seat. Even though a majority of the total votes cast did not go to that candidate. A case can be made that the SNP surge we saw in the 2015 general election, does not necessarily mean that the call for Scottish independence has increased amongst the Scottish electorate, as some would argue that an even larger amount of voters, did not vote SNP.

In addition, a second example of how FPTP limits the success of minor parties can be evidenced by looking at UKIP’s performance in the 2015 general election. As the polls suggested, UKIP did win close to 13% of the total votes cast, a significant share. However, this resulted in UKIP winning only one seat. FPTP limits the extent to how significant minor parties really can be. 

As a result of the cases above, it is clear that minor parties do play a significant role in UK politics. As evidenced by the influence UKIP had over determining the Conservative party policy towards the EU and ultimately, some would argue, causing Brexit. Also, by looking at how minority governments and partnerships such as coalitions and confidence and supply agreements, lead to further influence from minor parties towards government policy and in keeping the government functionable. The success of nationalist movements in parts of the Union such as Scotland also led to minor parties gaining more power in Westminster. All of these cases allow for minor parties to play a more significant role in our political system. However, an argument can be made that minor parties and their power and influence are limited due to factors like the electoral system.

Despite FPTP, minor parties have played a more significant role in the last decade. However, if minor parties want to play a more significant role in the future, a more proportional system is needed. 

Taylor is currently undertaking work experience at Bright Blue. Views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue. [Image: Chmee2]

Andrew Gibbons: How Boris Johnson could stall Scottish independence

By Centre Write, Politics

The Prime Minister is in a bind over growing Scottish pressure for another referendum on independence from the UK.  Many of Boris Johnson’s actions, including visiting Scotland, seem to increase support for independence.  The Scottish National Party regard him as the gift that keeps on giving, and they have the wind in their sails.

Mr Johnson has said he is not prepared to give Holyrood the power to hold a referendum, which creates another grievance for the nationalists to exploit. 

To escape this trap, Johnson needs to reverse the Brexit playbook model of vote first, clarify later.  This served him well previously and the Scottish nationalists are now enthusiastically following it. 

The winners in the Brexit referendum and 2019 Conservative election campaigns fought on the basis of a broad concept, avoiding discussion of details.  The Scottish nationalists are currently able to use a similar strategy based on emotional appeal for an independence referendum while minimising debate on specific policies.  Leaving all details to be sorted out afterwards minimises democratic input, as the nature of the final settlement owes more to the government of the day and its competence than to the views of the electorate.

In the Brexit referendum and the UK’s 2019 ‘Brexit election’ this approach proved impossible to counter.  It follows that to neutralise the nationalists, a diametrically opposite policy is needed.

Downing Street may have the makings of a plan.  It has already announced that there will be no officially sanctioned referendum during the current parliament.  While this may look like a measure certain to inflame the nationalists, it lays the ground.

If the SNP achieve a Holyrood landslide next May, granting a Section 30 order transferring power to hold a referendum would become politically harder to resist.  An effective and suitably dramatic response would be for Boris Johnson immediately to offer to start negotiations with the Scottish government to produce a draft withdrawal agreement, to be put to the Scottish people in an official referendum once finalised.

The draft agreement should obviously cover all aspects of Scotland’s exit from the United Kingdom and the future relationship between the two countries.  It might include constitutional issues and the role of the monarchy, trade and economic matters and which currency Scotland would use, citizenship and common travel area arrangements (perhaps like those the UK has with Ireland), defence (including basing arrangements for the UK’s nuclear armed submarines), and more.  

The process of negotiation would require the nationalists to address political realities and awkward questions such as how to deal with the current collapse in oil and gas revenues and the future loss of fiscal transfers from the UK exchequer worth around £11bn per year.

Timing is important.  Under the Good Friday agreement, an Irish referendum on re-unification may be held every seven years.  If this precedent were applied to Scotland, another independence referendum could be due in 2021.  If negotiations on a Scottish withdrawal agreement were under way, that would inevitably push the issue beyond next year and perhaps even beyond the end of this parliament.  The outcome of a referendum that might look like a foregone conclusion now could be very different if held some time after the next UK general election due in 2024.

Such a draft agreement would provide a solid basis for Scots to vote on their nation’s destiny through an officially recognised “indyref 2”.  The referendum then might be hailed as a global exemplar of enlightened, democratic decision making, with the Scottish people making an informed choice about their future.

Some aspects of separation and the future relationship with the UK would by their nature be contingent on actions by an independent Scotland.  Most obviously, if Scotland were to join the EU then the economic significance of the UK border would change radically.  At present around 60 per cent of Scotland’s exports go to the rest of the UK, whereas a hard border north of Hadrian’s Wall with possible customs and phytosanitary checks would adversely affect all the economies of the British Isles.  No government can fetter its successors, and a new Scottish government would have to make its own decisions within the context of domestic politics and whatever constraints the withdrawal agreement with the UK entailed.

The contrast between the Brexit model of enduring uncertainty until the end of negotiations and this approach is pointed.  Boris Johnson has shrugged off far more serious sources of potential embarrassment with his customary bluff and brio.  That seems preferable to the risk he currently runs of going down in history as the prime minister who divided the UK and lost Scotland.

Andrew is a member of Bright Blue. Views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue. [Image: Number 10]

Alex Griffiths: An indirect solution to Lords reform

By Alexander Griffiths, Centre Write, Politics

For decades reform of the House of Lords has been an issue which, despite widespread support, has never seen substantive systemic change even though over the decades there has been tinkering at the edges. However, as the recent controversy over Boris Johnson’s summer honours list shows these changes have not dealt with the fundamental problems of accountability and legitimacy at the heart of the Lords. In this climate this article proposes that the simplest way to reform the House of Lords, is by introducing a system of indirectly electing peers based on the results of general elections. 

The origins of this idea come from an unlikely source namely the singer Billy Bragg, who for 20 years has campaigned for what he has term a “secondary mandate” system for Lords reform, although this proposal does not follow all of his ideas. The basic premise of the system is that rather than setting up an election system for the Lords, as was proposed in the failed 2012 Lords Reform Bill, during a general election to the House of Commons all the constituency votes in a region are added together and then based on the results a set number of in the Lords are allocated to the competing parties Lords lists’. The only other relevant factor, although not necessarily unique to this system, is that the newly indirectly elected peers would be barred from running for re-election ending the job for life “retirement home” culture of the Lords at present. 

Now another system for indirect election has also been proposed specifically having a “chamber of the nations and regions” where representatives are drawn from devolved assemblies and local government, but the benefit of this proposal over that one is that under this article’s proposed system the mandate and complexion of the Lords would be tied to the results in the Commons and thus the peers would be unable to challenge the supremacy of the Commons. Indeed, an important argument in favour of this proposal over other Lords reform proposals is that this proposal doesn’t require significant new logistical planning. General elections remain the same with the only difference being that once the votes have been counted at a constituency level, the results are sent to a regional returning officer who then calculates and allocates the Lords seats for a region. This system is also not without precedent as prior to Brexit European elections were elected using this regional party list system and the European regions are another simple alternative system. Therefore, unlike other systems which could take time to bed and adapt to this one is a simple addition to the status quo. 

However, in adding to the status quo it the other significant benefit this system over other proposals brings is that this proposal also changes the status quo for general election, making First-Past-The-Post constituency voting fairer and more representative of party support but in a way which doesn’t require the public awareness or interest in a new system, as has been an issue for the new post of Police and Crime Commissioners. But in changing the status quo for constituency votes this proposal still respects the outcome of the 2011 AV referendum which found heavy support for retaining the current electoral system. Your vote may not elect your chosen party in your constituency, but it may get them a regional peer. Conversely, if a party makes controversial or scandalous selections for a regional peerage list then voters in a region have an opportunity to penalise you twice over, talk about a plague on both your houses. 

Now the proposed system will not deal with all the problems the Lords at present. The power of patronage will probably remain, and the regional party lists could be used to select the loyal over the brilliant. But patronage will always be a part of the political system and this proposal at least reduces the scope for that patronage to be used with a set number of seats per region the days of the Lords being the second largest legislative chamber in the world would be gone and the makeup would no longer be determined by the whims of governments but by votes.  

Another criticism that could be made of this proposal is that it undermines the focus of the Lords on independence removing the useful element of unaligned, or crossbench, lords who are appointed to the Lords based on their personal expertise. However, apart from the great number of peers who are former parliamentarians the absence of re-election prospects mitigates against the most powerful ways parties can control members and secondly, nothing stops parties in the indirect election system from nominating experts, indeed parties already do in the present system, for example; the doctor and scientist Lord Robert Winston is as a Labour member, and the businesswomen Baroness Karen Brady is a Conservative. However, if concerns remained then there is nothing stopping an indirect election system being amended to include provisions that bar members from having held political office of any kind.

Whilst this is an imperfect proposal, it does reduce the scope for the bad outcomes and introduces an indirect system of legitimacy and accountability into the Lords.

Alex is a researcher at Bright Blue. [Image: UK Parliament]

Callum Innes: Tackling youth obesity should mean more sports, not just fewer sweets

By Centre Write, Politics

Despite much of the country tucking into Rishi Sunak’s Eat Out to Help Out scheme, Boris Johnson is insisting that it is engaging in a ‘war on obesity’. So ambitious – or naïve – is this government that they aim to have an effect soon enough as to combat the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic. It is tempting to view this as a bold new initiative, but this ignores a simple fact: obesity has been notionally tackled by all governments since Blair, none of which has succeeded in stalling the growth of obesity.

Policies planned by the government in many ways merely represent an extension of Cameron-era interventions based on nudge theory, such as the sugar tax. The new government strategy includes bans on 2-for-1 deals and advertisements before the watershed for junk food, as well as moving unhealthy ‘treats’ away from the till, prescribing diets, and for calories to be displayed on menus. Ultimately, it is unclear the benefits these polices have brought thus far and will bring in the future, especially as junk food will remain ubiquitous, and lives are still becoming ever-more sedentary.

On the ground, youth participation in sports is declining, with minutes spent in PE declining by 20% at Key Stage 3 and 38% at Key Stage 4 between 2013 and 2018. Worryingly, there is a gulf in sports participation between less and more affluent groups, and along lines of ethnicity that closely follows gaps in youth obesity rates. The gap only widens when you look beyond the bare minimum of one hour’s exercise per week, with the demographic differences between those who play three or more hours even starker. With organised sports becoming increasingly important as a source of activity as children play outdoors less and stare at screens more, this is a concerning trend.

So how could a government undertake a proactive approach to youth obesity? Arguably it could look a bit like social prescribing, such as a new mental health initiative being rolled out across the country as an alternative to medicalised solutions. Social prescribers aim to provide information and community-oriented solutions to problems caused by anxiety, loneliness, etc. This could be translated into raising awareness of and interconnectivity between schools and local sports clubs. Currently, youth sports access within the UK is very divided along the lines of class and ethnicity. Not only are disadvantaged groups less likely to play sport but also have less access to certain sports. 

A policy that would seek to redress this imbalance could involve bringing club coaches into PE sessions, showcasing the sports while advertising them to interested pupils. Built into this new intra-community fabric would also be connections between schools and clubs, such that potential players and parents would have access to information on nearby facilities and sports clubs, alongside education and awareness about their benefits. Clubs are extant institutions that can provide egalitarian access to sports facilities that many comprehensives can’t. They are a ready-made alternative that is systematically under-utilised.

This is inspired by the experience of my cricket club which has an outreach programme in local schools, the largest such initiative in the UK. Not only has this led to it having one of the biggest youth sections in the county league, but has also diversified its membership, both socio-economically and ethnically, particularly with children of non-Commonwealth immigrants whose parents were not traditional fans of cricket. This illustrates that active lifestyles are disincentivised by information failures: there are sports out there for every individual, but such doors appear closed, or – even worse – children do not know they exist. 

Beyond the measures that seek to improve participation by simple information and awareness, socio-economic disadvantages also need to be addressed via direct financial support. If we are serious about tackling obesity, then it also requires us to tackle the obvious financial barriers to participation. Indeed, as the prior policies demand schools recognise their shortcomings and instead magnify the benefits of extra-curricular organisations, it follows that these non-public organisations ought to be more inclusive. 

A Sports Participation Voucher that would provide membership for a young person to a club for the duration of a season conditional on one of two requirements is one way to address this. Similarly, to Free School Meals, those whose family incomes fall below a certain point should be entitled to the voucher. In addition, those in urgent need of exercise, such that their obesity is putting their long-term health at risk, should also be entitled. This way those who are most in-need of extra activity yet most likely to not receive will not face the usual barriers.

If the Government is serious about tackling obesity, it must not just disincentivise unhealthy actions, but incentivise healthy lifestyles. What better way for that therefore, than for the government to stop nannying shopping aisles and instead getting more children playing, competing, and, winning.

Callum is currently undertaking work experience at Bright Blue. Views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue. [Image: RoboMichalec]