Skip to main content
Category

Towns & Devolution

Annabelle Walker: Childcare needs more than just demand side reform

By Centre Write, Education, Health & Social Care, Politics, Towns & Devolution, Welfare

The childcare crisis in the United Kingdom is more than just a pressing social issue; it’s a ticking time bomb with profound economic repercussions. The UK’s broken childcare system is an epidemic that has significant negative impacts on UK economic productivity and exacerbates the gender pay gap. Whilst initial progress has been made to address the crisis, specifically increasing demand for childcare, more needs to be done to address shortfalls in supply.

The astronomical cost of childcare has forced one in four UK parents to quit their jobs or drop out of education. This issue is highly gendered, with women predominantly bearing the brunt of unpaid domestic labour and childcare responsibilities. Consequently, women face a widening gender pay gap amid the relentless cost of living crisis. Bridging the gender gap could generate an extra £150 billion in GDP by 2025, with childcare provision playing a crucial role in unlocking this potential.

Additionally, investment in early childhood education (ECE) yields significant long-term socioeconomic benefits. Indeed, children who receive high-quality ECE are 14% more likely to be employed as adults, earn higher annual incomes, and can indirectly lower the likelihood of individuals engaging in criminal activities. Advancements in social mobility caused by ECE clearly highlight the need for a fully-functioning childcare system. 

Earlier this year, the UK government announced a £4 billion childcare reform package in response to the childcare crisis. The reforms included various initiatives such as the Extended Early Years Free Entitlement program, which grants children under three 15 hours of weekly free childcare, increasing to 30 hours per week by 2025. Additionally, the Government are attempting to incentivise new childminders with a £600 sign-up bonus to bolster recruitment in the childcare industry. 

Whilst these reforms are a step in the right direction, they largely fail to address the rapidly declining supply of childcare providers. It is imperative that the Government address this issue, as focusing solely on increasing demand for free childcare will create a chasm between expectations and capacity.

According to a nationwide survey by the Early Years Alliance, a substantial portion of childcare providers plan to offer only a limited number of places under the Government’s scheme for free childcare and charge privately for the rest. Eighty-three percent of providers expect an increase in demand under the new scheme, yet 60% will not be increasing the number of places they offer. This highlights the scheme’s fundamental flaw: demand is increasing, yet supply is not.

Supply is decreasing. There is a critical shortage of qualified childminders, with the number of registered childminders in England declining by 11% in just one year – falling to their lowest number since 2012. Ofsted data shows this results in a loss of more than 20,000 childcare places per annum

The number of staff employed by voluntary organisations and school-based nurseries is also declining. Childcare professionals are not accepting children eligible for government-funded care due to insufficient government payment. The only childcare providers to increase staffing between 2019 to 2022 were private nurseries, raising serious concerns regarding the perpetuation of socioeconomic disadvantage, given the benefits of ECE.

Ultimately, the financial viability of running a childcare business, coupled with low pay, increasing workloads and the cost of living crisis, is driving professionals away from the sector. Experts, such as Neil Leitch from Early Years Alliance, worry that government efforts to attract new childminders, such as sign-up bonuses, are unlikely to stem the exodus of existing professionals, and risk de-professionalising the workforce. 

To successfully tackle the childcare crisis, it is vital to increase the number of childminders and the capacity of existing providers. Expanding the workforce is the only way to bridge the supply-demand gap, increasing childcare provider participation in the Government’s currently ineffective childcare scheme. 

Boosting the workforce can be achieved in two ways. 

Firstly, recruitment of qualified childcare providers. Promoting early childcare careers to graduates via accessible Teach First style training programmes directly increases the size of the workforce. Germany’s ECEC training programme provides paid employment alongside the equivalent of a bachelor’s degree in vocational training for childcare. Hugely successful, the initiative attracts more applicants than places, highlighting the effectiveness of training programmes in recruitment. These programmes simultaneously increase the quality of ECE. Childcare providers with graduate and Level 3 qualified staff are shown to score highly on quality measures including learning, literacy, and language, and tend to be the most highly graded childcare settings. 

The second way to increase the workforce is by incentivising qualified workers to stay in the industry. To retain existing professionals, the Government should increase funding to match the increasing costs of providing childcare services. Currently, the Government pay professionals less than two-thirds of the estimated cost of the provision of free childcare. 

Furthermore, the Government must provide employees with professional development opportunities. Multiple countries have implemented effective strategies that retain qualified workers within the childcare sector. Slovenia’s early childcare system promotes preschool teachers to various titles, which correlates with pay rises. Promotion is based on years of experience, performance at work and engagement in additional professional development activities. Staff who are engaged, feel valued and can fulfil career ambitions are more likely to remain within their sector. The UK government should investigate implementing a similar model to decrease the mass departure from the UK’s childcare industry.

Therefore, childcare reforms must target the growth of childcare suppliers. Only by  increasing the supply of childminders and the capacity of existing providers can the UK fully resolve the childcare crisis, unlocking the untapped economic potential of parents who currently have no choice but to stay at home.

Annabelle Walking is currently doing work experience at Bright Blue. Views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue. [Image: Arron Burden]

The Rt Hon Sir Robert Buckland MP: The Rwanda scheme needs to be fairer, or we risk alienating voters

By Archive podcast, Centre Write, Health & Social Care, Politics, Towns & Devolution

Since its very inception, the principle of fairness has been the very foundation of the justice system in this country. Indeed, something cannot be fair if it is not just, and vice-versa. The United Kingdom has continued to champion justice ever since, with a strong emphasis on freedom and the rights of the individual being upheld by due process.  We have a long and proud legacy on this, from trial by jury and habeas corpus, through to the Police and Criminal Evidence Act and our leadership in drafting the European Convention on Human Rights.

It would be a travesty if such an admirable record were undermined by a knee-jerk response to a complex and sensitive issue. Without more work, the current Rwanda scheme threatens to erode the very sense of fairness that underpins so much of the British state and its functions, and, crucially, any policy that offends the innate British instinct of justice and due process will alienate voters and lose us the argument.

It is obvious that we must address the Channel crossings and dismantle the business model of the unscrupulous criminal gangs that profit from desperation and misery. Indeed, the perils of making the Channel crossing mean there is a humanitarian imperative that this Government’s approach is the correct one. The Government is right to challenge its critics to come up with other solutions, instead of a deafening silence.

It is also important to acknowledge that, when dealing with such a dangerous and desperate problem, we have to be firm to be fair. This means retaining the use of third countries as a last resort, but going back and looking at what can be done before their use to ensure we discharge our duties to vulnerable people while putting an end to their exploitation by a network of smugglers and criminals.

The latest report from the think tank, Bright Blue, can be looked to for inspiration for the path we need to take.  The use of humanitarian visas should be restored with safe routes subject to a quota. These policies would command popular support, too, resonating with the all-important public spirit of fairness and compassion.

It is vital we tackle this vexed and very human issue, but that can only be done with an approach that the public can get behind and that accords with proper due process and can withstand proper scrutiny. We simply have to move beyond facile arguments about the ECHR and “leftie lawyers” and start looking at solutions that pass both moral and political tests.

The Rt Hon Sir Robert Buckland MP is the former Justice Secretary. Views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue. [Image: Gov.uk]

Finn O’Hare: The Government can’t keep leaving sports on the bench

By Centre Write, Health & Social Care, Politics, Towns & Devolution

With one in six deaths in the UK being associated with physical inactivity it seems incredulous that tackling something as manageable as inactivity crisis has not been made more of a priority. Despite the government claiming that their policy on sport has been “to get more people in sport” for more than a decade, it is impossible to deem such policies a date – the UK is 20% less active than in the 1960s and projected to be 35% less active by 2030. The statistics lays bare the scale of the task ahead in reversing this worrying trend.

It is indisputable that those who are active in their childhood are more likely to remain active as they grow older, demonstrating why prioritising youth participation in sport is fundamental to tackling the inactivity crisis. The importance of prioritising youth sport cannot be overstated, with increased physical activity associated with widespread benefits on an individual’s mental and physical health, reducing the risk of dementia by up to 30%, cardiovascular disease by up to 35% and all-cause mortality by 33%. 

The impacts of increased inactivity amongst children are becoming clear, with the rate of obesity amongst children in the UK rising steadily over the last 15 years, regardless of how vocal the government has been in pledging to tackle the nation’s health and obesity since the pandemic – the 2023 government report concluded that 37.7% of year six age children obese or overweight, up significantly from 31.6% in 2006. 

It is clear that young people are not physically active enough, with just 47% of children meeting the UK Chief Medical Officers’ guidelines of taking part in an average of 60 minutes or more of sport and physical activity a day. Given that the majority of the nation’s children are not active enough, it can hardly be a surprise that tackling child obesity rates has proven so difficult. It is imperative that more be done to instil the importance of living an active and healthy lifestyle from a young age through the promotion of sport amongst young children and in schools, a mentality which should carry through to adulthood after being instilled early on. The evidence is clear that those who are active in their childhood are significantly more likely to remain activity for the duration of their life, and vice versa. The current generation of children is collectively unhealthy, a trend which if continued over time will only increase future pressure on an already struggling NHS, for whom physical inactivity is estimated as costing £0.9bn a year. With waiting lists already reaching record highs of 7.5 million in 2023, the importance of acting upon something as controllable as inactivity. 

While the causes of obesity are complex and multifactorial, it is driven by an imbalance in energy intake and energy expenditure. Given that physical activity is the most modifiable factor of energy expenditure and is responsible for roughly 25% of total energy expenditure, it clearly has significant power to impact the energy balance equation and in turn one’s likelihood of becoming obese. 

Furthermore, beyond the physical health benefits, the endorphins released by your body in response to exercise interact with receptors in your brain and have been proven to help ward off feelings of anxiety and depression, reduce stress, boost self-esteem and improve sleep. When we live in a time where 18% of 7 to 16-year-olds have a probable mental disorder, and mental health crisis care services are underfunded and understaffed, increasing activity has the potential to reduce strain on the NHS across multiple departments, as well as having multifaceted benefits on both children and society as a whole.

An increase in sports participation would also likely have benefits for educational attainment –  higher cardiorespiratory fitness is associated with higher brain function, improvements in cognitive control of working memory and levels of concentration, and consequently with higher results in tests, demonstrating the potential for the positive impact physical activity can have on an individual’s education. This further highlights the importance of investing in youth sport and the scope for improvements on an individual’s quality of life through an amalgamation of the aforementioned factors.

While the need for action appears to have been recognised at least to an extent by the government, which has implemented investment plans, such as the ongoing PE and sport premium funding established as a legacy to the 2012 Olympics, and the pledge in March 2014 of £150m a year for primary schools’ sport funding guaranteed until 2020.  And yet, 10 years on from their implementation, 4,000 hours of PE were lost at state schools over the past year, part of a wider trend of decline since the 2012 Olympics over which period there has been a 12% drop in school hours dedicated to sport – the plans can only be considered as a failure. This negative trend has been described as “a matter of immediate national concern”  by the Youth Sport Trust and should serve as the impetus for change, as it is irrefutable that the current plans are not working, and action needs to be taken to halt and reverse the decline – failure to do so is likely to have long term impacts on both the NHS and on individuals in terms of their physical health, mental health and educational attainment.

With this in mind, in tackle the inactivity crisis facing Britain it is clear that the government needs to do more to boost sport participation and activity levels amongst children, Increasing accessibility to all sports to all children. An acknowledgement of the far-reaching potential sport has to benefit an individual’s wellbeing academically, physically and mentally is a necessity to avoid at all costs allowing PE provision to decline as a result of core subjects being given additional time, a needless and dangerous scenario which 38% of teachers have said they felt is the case. Greater provision of compulsory sport in school hours, as well as the funding and resources to increase accessibility of after-school sports clubs is an absolute necessity.

While attempts have been made to show an interest in children’s sport the issue lies in the government directly contradicting itself with the advice and the policy they are issuing – while recommending children should take part in at least seven hours of sport a week, they are simultaneously stating in their own school sport and activity action plan that they intend to provide support for teachers and schools to deliver just two hours of high-quality PE a week. The need for a new approach and commitment to making physical activity a priority not just through words, but by implementing policies and funding to ensure children can readily access the levels of physical activity they are recommending is unquestionable. 

Without a radical and committed new plan, the UK faces falling further into an inactivity and obesity ‘epidemic’, a major concern given it already ranks fourth in Europe for having the most overweight and obese adults at present.

Finn O’Hare is currently doing work experience at Bright Blue. Views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue. [Image: Jeffrey F Lin]

Matte Sandroshvili: Create streets for pedestrians to tackle air pollution

By Centre Write, Energy & Environment, Towns & Devolution, Transport

In the heart of one of the world’s most iconic cities, a silent but deadly challenge looms large. Ninety-nine percent of London exceeds the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) recommended pollution particle limits. This causes 4,000 deaths a year in the capital which has the greatest percentage of deaths attributable to air pollution in England. It is clear we must do more to tackle air pollution and changing the layout of the streets is one proven, yet underappreciated, way to do it.

Existing measures, such as the Mayor of London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ), Low Traffic Neighbourhoods (LTN) and protected bike lanes have helped but are not enough to bring down air pollution. ULEZ works by charging drivers of non-compliant vehicles £12.50 per day. LTNs close off certain side roads and introduce bollards and planters to reduce traffic. Finally, the Mayor has implemented some protected bike lanes. However, London has 13,600 kilometres of road but only 160 kilometres of protected bike paths. This number needs to be increased to get people out of cars and onto bikes – thus reducing air pollution. 

Overall, however, whilst policies such ULEZ, LTNs and protected bike lanes have yielded results, with pollution levels 21% lower than they would have been without the measures, the problem persists. At the start of 2023, air pollution in London reached the pinnacle of the UK government’s DAQI (Daily Air Quality Index) and this was London’s worst rating since 2017. Clearly, more needs to be done. 

One potential solution is hidden beneath us: the street. Street design is an underappreciated field which has economic, social and environmental impacts – the way we design our streets dictates the way we interact with the world around us. If we design our streets for private cars, we will use private cars and here lies the problem in countless cities around the world: our cities are designed for cars, not people. 

This issue is especially prevalent in the USA, where New York has been setting an impressive example. In most of America it is almost impossible to get around without a car with 92% of households owning a car. However, New York still manages to maintain a better traffic and emission level than London, how is this so? 

New York has implemented a method of street design which prioritises the pedestrian and the cyclist over the motorist. These were started by the then Traffic Commissioner Janette Sadik Khan, who is responsible for making the pedestrianised Times Square we know today. She changed the streets by making protected bicycle lanes, wider pavements, narrower roads, fewer lanes and more pedestrian crossings. 

These reforms combined with greater public transport provision drove people away from cars and towards cycling, walking and using public transport. This has led to New York City having the lowest percentage of car ownership in America, at 45%, and fewer cars than London with only two million cars compared to London’s 2.6 million cars. This reduction in car ownership is key to bringing down air pollution as in both New York and London road vehicles are the biggest contributor to road pollution and even a change as easy cycling or walking one day a week can make a major difference by dropping each persons’ carbon footprint by 0.5 tonnes a year. 

There is plenty that London can take from New York’s improvements. First, it can introduce more protected bike lanes. Protected bike lanes help those who do not cycle as they do not feel safe; they separate the bikes from the cars and prevent any crashes. As previously mentioned, there are already some protected bike lanes in London and these have been successful with the 2015 implementation leading to an increase of up to 50% of cyclists on certain paths

Secondly, London needs to widen its pavements and narrow its road lanes. The average lane width in London is 12 feet – this is too wide and allows cars to feel safe travelling at high speeds whilst reducing the space for pedestrians and cyclists. If lanes are narrowed to ten feet, as they have been in New York, the benefits will be two-fold. First, this reduces the speed of cars and thus also reduces emissions by preventing brash accelerating and decelerating, which is a key cause of car emissions. Secondly, ten-foot lanes free up between four to six feet on the road which can be used to implement a new bike lane or more pedestrian crossings which reduces emissions by allowing more people to cycle or walk rather than drive.  

Overall, whilst street design is a relatively unknown field it can have a major impact on London’s emissions by reducing the number of Londoners driving and increasing the number who cycle, walk or take public transport.

Matte Sandroshvili is currently doing work experience at Bright Blue. Views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue. [Image: Tamara Menzi]

Nathan Stone: Does Japan hold the key to fixing the UK’s housing crisis?

By Centre Write, Economy & Finance, Housing & Homelessness, Politics, Towns & Devolution

If you aspire to one day own your own home, or for people you love to share in that ambition, Britain’s backlog of 4.3 million homes should concern you.

Homeownership is increasingly out of reach for many aspiring families. The current system is blatantly not working. This is unsustainable. 

We urgently need to improve our system. To do so, we ought to look around the world for inspiration. To this end, the answers to the UK’s woes may lie in Japan. 

The central challenge in building more homes lies in the structural shortcomings of the UK planning system. The key issue is its discretionary nature: planning permission is issued at the discretion of planning officers or locally elected councillors on a case-by-case basis. In theory, this allows local officials to weigh a plan not just against the aims of the Government’s National Planning Policy Framework, but also against any contextual ‘material considerations’ unique to the local area.

In reality, this system ensures a dichotomy between political gains and long-term planning objectives. Political support and voter appeasement are prioritised over well-conceived urban planning. Homeowners frequently agitate against nearby developments that they regard as a possible danger to the value of their homes. With homeowners constituting 63% of households, and only 37% supporting new housing in their area, there is a political incentive to listen to them.

What is needed is a more predictable, rules-based system that eliminates political considerations, like Japan’s. There, land within a local authority is divided into thirteen different zones, each allowing multiple uses. These range from exclusively low-rise residential zones to exclusively industrial zones

Each zone has clearly defined regulations covering permitted uses and building codes. Land use is categorised on a scale of intensity, with the lowest intensity use being residential buildings, and the highest intensity use being industrial premises. Schemes legally must be granted planning permission if they comply with the national zoning code, meaning that low-rise residential buildings are permitted almost everywhere.

A consequence of Britain’s system is that development schemes are approved on a case-by-case basis. Public consultation on every individual development proposal is inexorably built into the system, as planning permission being granted solely at the discretion of local councillors necessitates each proposal being assessed individually. Not only does this have the potential to massively slow or even gridlock the system, but it creates an element of uncertainty that significantly influences the business model of developers. 

This uncertainty centres on the fact that, in the UK system, there is no guarantee of planning permission. This creates an unstable and scarce supply of sites for development. Developers respond to this by ‘land-banking’ to create a pipeline of sites they know they can work on. Many potential development sites have been granted planning permission but no development takes place, as developers are forced to bank sites to ensure they always have land upon which they can operate, even if planning permissions dry up. 

In contrast, the Japanese system front-loads public consultation. Land use consultations set the medium-term plan for urban growth: the zoning for the area is specified, and building specifications and appearance are determined. Residents get a say on this but have no further say on individual proposals once the local plan is approved. There are no further avenues through which development can be prevented from this point onwards.

The Japanese system therefore negates the need for land-banking, by providing assurances and certainty that the UK system cannot. 

Removing discretionary approval and consulting the public earlier in the process means that developers are guaranteed planning permission on land before they purchase it, providing they meet the zonal criteria. Consequently, there is always a steady surplus of opportunities for development, rendering land-banking redundant. As a result, land is immediately developed instead of hoarded, work starts on a greater number of sites, and the number of new homes increases. 

Certainty enables more houses to be built in Japan than in the UK. 174,000 houses started construction in the UK in 2022-23, whereas 404,000 houses started construction over the same period in Japan. As a result of this, while mean rents in London are upwards of £2,000, average rents in Tokyo are about £1,300

If we want to see sustained increases in housebuilding, policymakers should take note of the simplicity, predictability and certainty of Japanese Land Use Zones. The Japanese experience should be an inspiration for the UK.

Nathan Stone is currently doing work experience at Bright Blue. Views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue. [Image: Su San Lee]

Bartek Staniszewski: The Government’s housing strategy leaves too many things unsaid

By Bartlomiej Staniszewski, Centre Write, Economy & Finance, Housing & Homelessness, Towns & Devolution

I was once listening to a young woman give a talk at a pub, and the topic, naturally, turned to housing. She told us she had given up on looking for a house – she tried, but it has proven impossible to find a place for which she would be given a mortgage and where she actually wants to live. 

That young woman was the Minister for Levelling Up, Dehenna Davison MP. If even members of the Government are not able to secure a mortgage for their first home, what hope do us, average Joes, have? 

In the 1980s, it would have taken a typical couple in their late twenties around three years to save for an average-sized deposit. Today, it would take nineteen. Millennials are half as likely to own a home at the age of thirty as Baby Boomers were, and the situation will likely be even worse for Gen Z. Most – 68% of all renters, in fact – have given up on any hope of ever being able to afford a home. The situation for young people trying to get onto the housing ladder is dire. 

It was good to hear, then, Michael Gove saying in the speech he gave earlier this week that the Government will be “prioritising first-time buyers for homes over those with multiple properties, over those seeking to convert family homes into holiday lets, and over speculative  buyers.” The numbers involved are huge. According to my estimations based on Resolution Foundation research and the UK House Price Index, the UK is host to around £1.3 trillion’s worth of additional property wealth: a sixth of all of the UK’s property wealth. To put this into context, this volume of property is worth over five million times more than the average home bought by the average first-time buyer. 

Over 10% of the UK population own multiple properties. A significant contributor are short term rentals. There were around 4.5 million in the UK as of 2020 – around 19% of the UK’s housing stock. Gove has already, laudably, been trying to bring some of them back into the hands of locals who have been prevented from stepping onto the housing ladder by requiring that said rentals acquire planning permission. 

It was encouraging to hear that Gove wants to see more homes built where first-time buyers want to live. The overarching message of his speech was densification – filling in and expanding existing settlements, such as London, Manchester and Cambridge. The average age in the UK’s major urban areas is just under 38 years. In rural areas, it is over 44 years. Moreover, at the time of writing this article, on the portal graduate-jobs.com, over half of all the graduate jobs advertised are either in London, Manchester or Birmingham – all large urban centres. Young people struggling to get onto the housing ladder have their jobs and friends largely in urban areas, and not on the green belt, so this is where they want to live. 

The problem is that this is not enough. 

First, research consistently shows that there simply is not enough space in any of the cities Gove mentions to achieve the kind of housebuilding numbers he aspires to. According to the Centre for Policy Studies, even if every piece of brownfield was developed for housing, only 1.1 million homes would be provided; enough for less than four years of sustainable housing development, and nowhere near the 4.3 million new homes that the Centre for Cities estimates 

We need to meet housing demand. A part of the solution to fixing the housing crisis must lie in expanding settlements outwards, as well as densifying them. Even if first-time buyers do not want to live outside urban centres, new homes built there would incentivise older people to move and free up their properties located where younger people need them. 

Second, even if the above were not the case, and millions of new homes could be built through densification alone, doing so would take decades – but the housing crisis is here with us now. By the time this increase in supply would effect housing affordability, millennials will have retired, including those who never managed to get onto the housing ladder.  

In truth, even if there was enough supply-side expansion immediately, prices would still remain out-of-reach for too many people in the short term. And even in the long term, the  Government must ensure that those new homes are not simply snapped up by rich landlords, speculators and holiday-makers. To alleviate this, the Government ought to work on a new demand-side measure targeting housing affordability for first-time buyers, but avoiding the past mistakes of Help to Buy. 

But perhaps there is some hope. The careful listener will have picked up on Gove’s brief salute to Help to Buy, followed by the promise that “we will go further later this year.” Let us wait and see. The Secretary of State for Levelling Up took a step in the right direction, yet more still needs to be done.

Bartek Staniszewsk is a Researcher at Bright Blue. Views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue. [Image: Ricahrd Bell]

Douglas Ross: Scotland needs a skills revolution

By Centre Write, Economy & Finance, Education, Politics, Towns & Devolution

With Scotland’s ageing population and stagnating economy we need far more focus in our politics on our skills strategy, if we are to boost productivity and provide the growth of the future. Without that, we will struggle to fund good public services.

Indeed, the sluggish growth under the SNP’s watch is one of the factors behind their swingeing cuts, particularly in local services.

But far too often, when we talk about skills and education we concentrate on young people’s access to university or see the issue in terms of ensuring adults have the basic skills they need. And there is clearly more that we need to do to ensure that Scottish young people can get access to university if they have the ability and choose to go there.

In 2020, it was found that just over half of Scottish based applications to Scottish universities won a place, whereas almost three quarters of applications from students based in England were granted one. This is a direct consequence of the SNP Government’s funding model, which provides universities with a strong financial incentive to prioritise students who don’t live in Scotland.

But the barriers to access go much wider than universities.

The SNP Government’s own adult leaning strategy found that over 300,000 Scottish adults have low or no qualifications and almost 2 million Scottish adults have low numeracy skills.

However, thinking of skills purely in the terms of university education or in ensuring the provision of basic adult learning is an increasingly redundant approach that will not deliver the workforce our economy needs.

Our education system is still built around the outdated notion that a university degree is the universal golden ticket to success in the modern Scottish economy. That is what pupils are told in schools and where public money goes.

For every £1 the Scottish Government spends on skills and training, £10 is spent on supporting higher education institutes and the students who study there. And government funding per college student was more than a quarter lower than support for an average university student.

Inevitably it is the wealthy who benefit most from this focus on university education.

The most deprived Scottish school leavers are seven times more likely to go into training, two and a half times as likely to go to college, 25% more likely to go into a job or apprenticeship and half as likely to go to university as the least deprived school leavers. The SNP Government, which said that closing the attainment gap was its first priority, has instead left it yawning as wide as ever.

Yet for all this focus on university education we do not have the skills our economy needs. A Scottish Government survey found that over a fifth of all job vacancies in Scotland were related to skills shortages. Also, the Institute of Directors found that 44% of business leaders do not believe that they have a workforce with the right skills and a similar number do not believe that they will be able to recruit the right people to fill vacancies.

With an ageing Scottish population, we need to be much smarter about how and where we invest public money to get the workforce Scottish employers need.

We need to look at the over-emphasis on university degrees that exists in our current education system and encourage more young people to take alternative approaches to what is essentially four years of study with no guarantee of good employment at the end.

As someone who never went to university, I can confidently say that there are other routes to success.

Delivering the skills, we need starts by establishing parity of esteem. There is a reason that almost two thirds of young people from the most affluent backgrounds go on to university.

We need to remove the stigma that surrounds colleges and apprenticeships and instead promote and celebrate the life chances they can offer.

As Scottish Conservative Leader, I have been privileged to see exciting apprenticeship opportunities up and down the country – from defence to renewables energy to financial services.

The more we can work with attractive employers to create exciting opportunities, the more we can encourage Scots into apprenticeships.

However, the SNP have repeatedly missed their 30,000 modern apprenticeship target. They managed just over 25,000 in 2021/22 and are on track to fall short again in the last financial year.

So the Scottish Conservatives would reverse the current funding structure for apprenticeships from one where funded places are set by the government to one where the employers decide how many good apprenticeships they need, which the government then delivers support for. This would create potentially unlimited apprenticeship opportunities for Scotland’s young people.

But ultimately the prestige will follow the funding.

Scotland has world class universities, yet the current model means that they are being increasingly shut off from Scottish students. That is why the Scottish Conservatives are committed to working with the sector to reduce the length of degrees, where appropriate, from four to three years. This would reflect the reality that fewer Scots each year leave school in S5, would create more places for Scots and get students into the workforce a year earlier.

But it would also allow us to invest more in alternatives. Since 2007, the number of college students has fallen by over 140,000 – and just at the start of this month, the SNP cut £46 million from college and university funding.

An underfunded college system, starved of the cash that it needs, is hardly an attractive choice for our best and brightest young people. If we believe in equality of opportunity, then why is it that vocational courses through college receive less government support than academic courses through university?

If we want to deliver parity of esteem between vocational and academic education then over time we need to move towards parity of funding and if we want more young people to enter the workforce with the skills our economy needs then we need to give employers more involvement in their education.

Yet we cannot just change course for the next generation. We must also look at upskilling Scotland’s workforce today. Because we need a step change in how we approach adult skills, and to end the attitude that the end of school, or even college or university, is the end of learning. More and more of us will have multiple careers throughout our lives.

One of the biggest barriers to adult learning is access. That is why the Scottish Conservatives would set up a National College for Scotland which would work with all of Scotland’s higher and further education institutes to deliver high quality remote courses and learning. That means that wherever you live or whenever you can learn you have access to educational materials that you need.

Yet, as I said, the biggest barrier is our national mindset. We need to create an incentive for more people to think about the need for continuous upskilling. That is why we believe in offering every Scottish adult who is not already in funded education or training, access to use-it-or-lose-it skills funding through a Right to Retrain.

Taken together this would provoke an essential shift in encouraging more adults across Scotland to update and upgrade the skills and qualifications they can offer so that employers have access to the workforce they need.

The SNP argue for greater powers over immigration as a way to deal with the labour shortages many employers face. Yet Scotland already doesn’t attract its share of current migration to the UK. Even among those who do come north of the border, the lion’s share go to Edinburgh and Glasgow, not the Highland and Islands where they are greatly needed.

While immigration has its part to play, it is far too often used by the SNP Government as an easy answer to avoid a more difficult discussion about how the Scottish workforce does not have the skills that Scottish businesses and our economy needs and what they are going to do about it.

But it is a national debate that we need to have because if we don’t then productivity and our economy will continue to stagnate, and we will continue to lag behind our international competitors. Then it simply becomes a matter of time before Scotland is no longer an attractive place even for hardworking migrant workers to come to. And the SNP’s policy of making Scotland the highest-taxed part of the UK has the potential to render living and working here even less appealing.

Our demographics require a sizeable influx of skilled workers just to avoid decaying public services. But we should want to go further, and to make Scotland an engine for productivity and growth.

Scotland needs a skills revolution to drive the economic growth of the future and the Scottish Conservatives have the ideas and vision to deliver it.

Douglas Ross MP MSP is the Leader of the Scottish Conservative Party. Views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue. [Image: Adam Wilson]

Thomas Nurcombe: Want to cut climate migrants? Boost foreign aid spending

By Centre Write, Housing & Homelessness, Thomas Nurcombe, Towns & Devolution

The migrant crisis is currently at the centre stage of British politics. On Tuesday, Suella Braverman, the Home Secretary, unveiled her plans for the prevention of migrants arriving to the UK’s shores on small boats. By introducing the Illegal Migration Bill, the Government is trying to eliminate the incentive to make dangerous small boat crossings and speed up the removal of those who arrive in the UK illegally.

If it succeeds, this Bill will be critical to the Conservative Party’s 2024 election hopes. However, while this is happening, the Government is neglecting ways to tackle a long-term migrant crisis that could eclipse the scale of today’s crisis.

By reducing the Official Development Assistance (ODA) budget from 0.7% of Gross National Income (GNI) to 0.5%, the Government has risked a future influx of climate migrants. Alongside this, as much as a third of the overseas aid budget is being spent at home according to the International Development Select Committee. The Home Office is spending around £3bn of the ODA budget to host refugees in the UK, taking money away from aid provisions that should be used for development.

It is imperative that development aid remains development aid and appropriate amounts are allocated towards long-term sustainability, particularly climate-related projects in the poorest countries. The Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has to ‘take back control’ of foreign aid in order to avoid, or at least mitigate, a future climate refugee crisis. ODA should be used for development abroad and the legal requirement that 0.7% of GNI is to be spent on foreign aid must be reinstated.

The drastic cuts to aid have decreased the funding to the 47 poorest nations on Earth by 40%. These countries need funding that supports their adaptation to climate change, not just for their benefit, but to ensure that a flood of climate migrants does not create an unbearable burden on the British taxpayer.

The links between climate change and migration are strong in regions that depend on agriculture for survival. Quantitative studies show that a mere one-degree increase in temperature correlates to a 5% increase in migration from the top 25% of nations most dependent on agriculture. Should financial support not be provided to poor countries to support their adaptation to climate change, this increase will be even greater. A four-degree increase could translate to a near 100% growth in asylum applications. Consequently, the continued warming of poorer countries will multiply refugee numbers coming to the UK, far beyond the numbers of the current migrant crisis.

Unfortunately, the British public is not overwhelmingly supportive of aid expenditure. In 2020, 66% of the population supported reducing the amount spent on overseas aid, according to a YouGov poll, with an overwhelming percentage of Conservative voters agreeing (92%). In February 2023, YouGov polling similarly found that 55% of Brits felt that the Government was still spending too much on overseas aid.

Nevertheless, aid expenditure is in the interests of all of us due to its role in climate adaptation and mitigating climate migration.

Successes have been common in British climate aid. By 2021, 88 million people had been supported to cope with the effects of climate change across the Global South. Moreover, as a result of the £4.8bn of public funds that had been mobilised through international climate finance, 41 million people across Africa and Asia had improved access to clean energy.

Grants under the Darwin Initiative helped to protect the environment and supported local communities in the developing world to adapt to climate change. In one project in rural Uganda that received £123,000, a small amount relative to the size of the development budget, household incomes grew by 69% as people gained vocational skills, the percentage of households with functional sanitisation increased from 20% to 100% and agricultural production diversified.

However, projects like this are being placed in peril by the worrying lack of attention given to foreign aid. As a consequence, livelihoods in poor communities across the Global South will be threatened, food supplies rendered vulnerable and absolute poverty maintained as global temperatures rise, causing many to journey to the UK in search of support. 

It is therefore critical that UK aid reaches its intended purpose – to support the sustainable development of developing countries.

Three things must happen in the coming months. Firstly, the Chancellor should recommit to the 0.7% of GNI requirement that is spent on development assistance. Secondly, the FCDO has to ‘take back control’ over the foreign aid pot so that the Home Office and other departments do not use the money intended to solve the causes of migration at source. And lastly, it must be ensured that aid is prioritised towards promoting environmental sustainability. Unless this happens, a future climate migrant crisis is inbound. 

Thomas Nurcombe is a Research Assistant at Bright Blue. Views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue. [Image: Julie Ricard]

Andrew Forsey: Auto-enrollment is the key to fixing our broken welfare system

By Centre Write, Housing & Homelessness, Towns & Devolution

There is one characteristic which is shared by some of the most efficient and effective parts of the modern welfare state: auto-enrolment. 

Whether it is for workplace pensions, Cost of Living Payments, or the Warm Home Discount, the proactive use of data to administer schemes which boost people’s living standards has proven to be one of the best tools available to ministers – especially in any attempt to change behaviour as well as to help poorer households with the stubbornly high costs of food and other essentials.

This tool is particularly adept at tackling one of the issues which has long bedevilled parts of the welfare state; namely, low take-up among households who are eligible for support but do not access it due to a lack of awareness, difficulties in navigating the application process, or stigma.  

The opportunity to use this tool to strengthen the nutritional safety net – Healthy Start and free school meals – must now be grasped if Rishi Sunak is to realise his aspiration, which we share, of reducing the numbers of people needing to use food banks before the next general election.

Healthy Start is a brilliant NHS scheme through which families on low incomes, with children under the age of four, receive at least £4.25 each week toward fruit, vegetables, and milk. However, more than 200,000 potential beneficiaries are currently missing out on the scheme, representing 37% of all those who are eligible. That figure rises to 45% in the area represented by Mr Sunak. The best estimates suggest that a similar number of children in England are eligible but not registered for free school meals.

In respect of free school meals, take-up could be maximised by giving all local authorities the tools they need automatically to identify and then register all eligible children in their area for free school meals (with an opt-out function for families who do not wish to be registered). For Healthy Start, it is central government departments that know which children are eligible but not registered to receive their entitlement, and upon whom those tools would need to be bestowed. Taken together, these two measures could boost family budgets to the tune of more than £100 million a year. 

In Bright Blue’s Building Up: The future of social security, the authors propose the creation of a Social Security Digital Platform which, amongst other functions, would enact a policy of auto-enrolment. This would ensure all households in receipt of certain benefits are simultaneously signed up to other forms of support for which they are eligible. Such a move would represent a welcome and lasting piece of welfare reform.  

In the short term, there is a backbench bill being presented to the House of Commons, with cross-party support from 60 MPs, which would secure full take-up of Healthy Start by shifting it from ‘opt in’ to ‘opt out’. Were the government to accept this bill, and initiate a process of auto-enrolment, it would at a stroke begin to move the welfare state onto a more proactive footing and, in doing so, ensure hard-pressed families are able to make healthier choices while stretching their budgets further.

Andrew Forsey is National Director of Feeding Britain. Views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue. [Image: Sandy Millar]

Mikhail Korneev: The problem of anti-homeless architecture is still here

By Centre Write, Housing & Homelessness, Towns & Devolution

After the mess and fuss of the recent years in UK politics, one begins to look back on the early 2010s with warmth. A time when the most pressing stories were either true policy discussion or – to spice things up – Ed Milliband eating a sandwich. But times have changed and we are left wondering how many issues got crowded out by political scandals. However keeping these problems out of mind has simply left these issues to fester. 

The attitude towards homelessness and hostile architecture is one of these ongoing issues. Although metal spikes have been causing public outrage for years, anti-homeless architecture is not gone for good. It is essential to revive this conversation. Recent research reveals that the public is becoming more empathetic towards homeless people. This creates an optimal environment for civil society and the government to tackle this long-standing problem. 

‘Hostile architecture’ is a product of urban design that is often overlooked. This term stands for elements of the built environment that intentionally restrict certain activities. For instance, small metal devices on handrails obstruct their use by skaters. In a narrower sense, this phenomenon is also referred to as ‘anti-homeless architecture’. This means that certain parts of built-up or outdoor space are designed to hinder or disincentive rough sleeping. Metal and concrete spikes near the walls, and benches with a ‘divider’ or an angle are the most common examples of this. 

In the UK, this topic attracted public attention in the 2010s with many criticising the use of metal spikes in front of private housing and businesses. Metal spikes have become an ongoing issue and public discussions are amplified by new instances of hostile architecture and media scandals. Anti-homeless architecture has, however, not disappeared. In central London alone, one can find concrete spikes in front of Tower Hill station, and metal spikes at Limehouse and the Old Bailey to name a few.

The key argument against anti-homeless architecture is that it is exclusionary and dehumanising. Metal and concrete spikes resemble anti-pigeon spikes used widely across the UK. To intentionally design an element that prevents sleeping is both an acknowledgement of the rough sleeping problem and a bold denial of empathy towards a fellow human being. Moreover, the presence of spikes exposes the failure to recognise rough sleepers as community members in need. Anti-homeless architecture denotes rough sleepers as ‘others’ and excludes them from the local area.  

A common response to criticism of anti-homeless architecture is that it is just one element of a much broader problem. Put another way, when one complains about anti-homeless design elements it distracts attention from other more comprehensive solutions. In my view, this is a legitimate concern. Even an outright prohibition of metal spikes will not put an end to rough sleeping. When we talk about anti-homeless architecture, we need to talk about homelessness prevention, intervention and aid, as well as social housing. 

Nonetheless, the debate around hostile architecture is vital in its own right. Both conceptually and physically, anti-homeless architecture’s main purpose is to push the problem of rough sleeping away. The fact that it is accepted in modern Britain legitimises the unempathetic approach to rough sleeping. If one asks the question “is it alright for a person to be left with no other option but to sleep on the street in the UK?”, the spread of hostile architecture implies a “yes, as long as this does not happen on my doorstep” answer. It is also crucial that the discussion of hostile architecture does not necessarily crowd out discussion of other homelessness-related problems and initiatives. If anything, it should raise public awareness of the rough-sleeping problem. 

Admittedly, there are limitations on reducing hostile architecture through policymaking. First, hostile architecture is often used by private owners. Any restrictions and regulations will inevitably undermine individuals’ rights to manage their property.

Of equal importance is the lack of precision in the definition of anti-homeless architecture. While metal spikes can hardly serve any other purpose, benches with a divider may be designed with the needs of those who require support to stand up in mind. It is similarly complicated to distinguish artistic expression or aesthetic choices from intentional hostility. For instance, should outdoor plants be banned if they are used to occupy space and obstruct rough sleeping? A sophisticated policy will require case-by-case analysis and ad hoc requirements. This might make a state solution costly and ineffective because formal legislation inevitably lacks flexibility. 

If the response to anti-homeless architecture is not driven by the state, the public should take the lead. In 2014 for instance, a change.org petition resulted in the owner removing the metal spikes from the front of their private property in the Southwark area. While there is scarce evidence of other successful public campaigns, the 2014 petition provides a model solution. Public campaigns can focus on individual cases, achieve sound results and disincentivise the future use of anti-homeless design elements. 

Hostile architecture is an exclusionary practice that undermines the integrity of the community. It is also a toxic phenomenon that normalises the dehumanisation of rough sleepers. Prohibition by the state, while desirable, has significant limitations as an approach. However, this does not preclude the endeavour to counter anti-homeless architecture. Raising awareness and attracting public attention can generate positive change at a local level. Especially at a time when the public’s interest in addressing the homelessness problem is growing. 

Mikhail Korneev is a Research Assistant at Bright Blue. Views expressed in this article are those of the author, not necessarily those of Bright Blue. [Image: Nick Fewings]